Mafia 112. Pirates of the HW Sea

so, besides the chance that Heroist is not Mafia, there's also a chance that he is Mafia, but with protection from execution. After that, we get the Kraken's ultimate ability and kill Beckett, and only after that do we finish off Heroist on another day, and even then it's not certain. Considering this, the chance of the Kraken appearing doesn't seem low anymore.