Well, I've already put forward my version of the ND, with only one comment: with the theft in one night, your theory might be more accurate than mine. But here, it's important to understand the following: on the second night, we only had one block, and there was no ND copying, which gives some clue about the monkey. I have no doubts about this.
As for the rest, I think Will is still with us.
Replying to Otkamenchu Yashura:
1. Why did the mafia block Ment? They didn't use the block on the first night, but on the second night, they suddenly needed to. It wasn't to kill Beckett, nor to protect, but specifically a block...
They probably checked and found the "not a pirate" status and blocked protection/guard/heal... Then Ment is Turner. Or Norrington.
Block from the mafia, a clue from Gibbs, theft from the monkey, guard or protection, and something "cunning"...
If Ment is Turner or Norrington, then we get the displayed ND from the monkey, which means you have rum.
I will get modkill for the rest of the answers, I will only say that there can be two versions here, and they lie in the subsequent logic of the monkey's actions, which we will be able to see in the final log.
As for the alternative to today's execution -
1. Execute Arthur on suspicion of being a tentacloid. The fact that Nebo found something on the snail speaks in favor of this option. I don't rule out that it's a Berber. And yes, this is not a leak of an inactive player, but specifically because of the Berber, Nebka
2. Grab Fragment by the ass. He's suspicious. And I have my own reasons not to trust him. The problem is that there are supposed good roles for him, which is frustrating.
3. Invite Ples to the gallows because he has approximately an 80% chance of being a mafia member due to the block and the small number of peaceful roles on him.
2. If Frag was a villain, his move of changing his voice from me is very unclear, and even detrimental, isn't it?
3. Ney, can you explain which peaceful roles remain for Ples, in your opinion?