Mafia 112. Pirates of the HW Sea

Yashur, how do you rate the theory that on the first night, the monkey stole a bottle of rum from Neyra, and on the following night, blocked Ment, while also robbing Revan?

I rate it as highly probable, but now with the word "Neyra" replaced with the word "Heroist"... And of course, the option "Ment"->"Fragment" also has a right to exist.