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Sakuramoria

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Due to Fute's allergy forcing her to stay cooped up in her room for practically the entire month of May, with nothing else to do, she spent some time taking notes on the most dreary lectures.
Perhaps, in the intricacies of international relations among sharks devouring each other, she managed to see the reflection of the microcosm of ordinary common folk projected onto a larger scale, which helped her naturally absorb the material, or perhaps it was the opportunity to vent her bile about life in general, using the equivocations available within the scope of this subject.
Be that as it may, by the end of the exam, her fingers were completely blackened from graphite, and on the middle finger's knuckle, a callus from writing had formed and torn for the first time in several years.

Exam: Laphrenia
Question 1: describe your thoughts on the completed course. Examples of suitable topics for reflection:
- assessment of the geopolitical situation in Laphrenia and its future in the coming years.
- assessment of Sakumororia's role in the life of Laphrenia.
Question 2: name three countries from those listed that you liked the most and explain why you chose them.
Question 3: name three countries from those listed that you liked the least and explain why you chose them.
Question 4: students from which countries would you like to see among your ranks after the start of the next quarter, and why them?
Question 5: students from which countries would you NOT like to see among your ranks after the start of the next quarter, and why them?
Question 6: if a military conflict breaks out between Sakumororia and another country in the coming years, what would be your emotions regarding this, and would you go to the front?

1. Laphrenia is a patchwork quilt of territories and cultures of varying degrees of insanity, in the middle of which, like a large malignant blot, sits our wonderful Sakumororia.

But since this is a more lively topic for us, I will first give a brief description of what's happening in the middle of nowhere - far to the east.
It is obvious that the main source of instability is the rivalry of Trivium, and all possible scenarios stem from this.
From the lecturer's accounts, I got the impression that Aolia is the main disputed territory, where all conceivable types of war crimes, secret operations, acts of terrorism, and other outrages occur, serving as a measure of sublimation for the direct border conflicts between these countries. This scenario is likely to continue for a very long time - until the local population is completely crushed/cleansed/destroyed, and the war escalates into an acute phase. Most likely, this impulse will come from the country of Ditlind, whose super-idea is capable of justifying any atrocities and aggression.
Excluding this, I see no other shifts towards changing the situation in that part of the region at the moment - their few neighbors show no ambition to shake up the established geopolitical landscape. Unless, perhaps, another round of technological or magical development leads to a corresponding catastrophe or the invention of some monstrous weapon capable of tipping the scales.

And now, regarding our great and best-in-the-world Sakumororia, where every person is infinitely happy.
We have hostile relations with every neighbor, with Leviya and Lethargia allied with each other, representing a historical danger for us in this part of the world. These two nations themselves do not pose a serious existential threat, but they are a thorn in the side, mongrels, parasites that can be kept under control for the time being, but the moment the country faces troubled times or a threat arrives from another direction - these bandits will calmly strike our territory, both by sea and by land. In the event of a serious shortage of our armed forces' numbers on the territory, or even as a result of the gradual disintegration of certain structures of our society, which could be caused by anything - exhausting wars, economic failures and the impoverishment of the population, religious and interethnic strife - even under the influence of such nonentities as our colleagues to the south and west, the border territories would easily break away. The fact that the Greens lack a centralized authority capable of forcing them to go die for the master might play in our favor here, but it should be understood that both national formations harbor a deep sense of resentment towards us, rooted in generations.

Countries like Oleander and Elysium, on the other hand, are enormous in size and resources, and their administrative apparatus does not suffer from a lack of political will, representing two sides of the same coin of absolute oppression. Moreover, they are nominally close in religious and ideological views, and their rulers may find much in common with each other.
Both nations are supported by Kermia, the "merchant guild" of the region, which has concentrated a huge amount of resources and valuable connections in its paws. If it wishes, it can stage a proxy conflict on the territory of our contact with Oleander, and for us this would be far more catastrophic than for them. The only counterbalance in this situation is our northern neighbor, whose cultural characteristics and pride prevent them all from uniting into a coalition against us. But this is no reason for relief. Rulers and policies tend to change, no matter what traditions they are bound by, and tomorrow may well bring them to a more negotiable state.
My approximate forecast: this happens, and the combined forces of the north and northwest carve up our northern provinces, some of which go to the Blues in exchange for settling claims against the Hares.
Second scenario: I don't know how Pulchra the Fair's fleet is (but if necessary, her resources would allow its organization) and whether a ship's displacement can support her imposing figure, but she declares a cleansing of our Green neighbor, and she won't even have to play the religious card for this - pirates are hated by everyone. As a result, we have a huge block hostile to us, in terms of territory and resources, right on our doorstep, capable of either physical invasion or absolute hegemony in the west. In such a case, we would have to seriously reconsider our relations with the north and south, seeking out all sorts of humiliating ways to make concessions.

As for the various kinds of barbarians sheltering in the east - I wouldn't expect any threat from them under normal circumstances, but if this new king of theirs is so beloved by various tribes that he can unite them if necessary, and is also obsessed with a super-idea, then anything can be expected.

Summing up the thoughts on immediate threats, the lecturer, despite asking for an assessment of our great Sakumororia's role, told us little about it itself in the context of his lessons, preferring that we draw our own conclusions based on indirect facts. Based on these facts and its geographical position, I can conclude that its existence in its current form is not necessary for many. Any of our neighbors would gladly take bites out of it, initially leaving just one conditional buffer zone between each other, which it currently serves as, where they would establish their own order - as we saw with the example of Aolia.
Therefore, the idea of combining all scenarios into one, against the backdrop of our political leadership changing to a young and inexperienced one, seems to me a good and quite realistic one:
- The visionary king of Sanguinarium unites the tribes so that they go to restore harmony and unity with nature to our eastern chunks;
- The Blues once again launch a full-scale invasion of our north;
- Pulchra invades the territory of the Greens and establishes herself as our new western neighbor;
- The Greens, under this onslaught, flee en masse towards our border lands, looting and killing everything in their path;
- Simultaneously, our southern borders come under an opportunistic attack;
- From the northwest, Oleander's troops almost without a fight take over territories that have lost contact with our main land after the joint attacks from the west and north;
- Our school, and most likely every citizen, is conscripted and sent into the meat grinder on all sides of the horizon.

One might think that such a scenario requires some coordination on the part of the world's shadow government, but in reality, not that much. Many of these factors are merely consequences of those preceding them, and the starting point can be traced back to literally the first couple of events.

2. There are no good countries, except for the great and mighty Sakumororia, where every citizen lives a happy life from beginning to end, for two hundred years.
But if for one brief moment we assume that enemy spies caught a person and beat him over the head for so long that he forgot where he was from, then one could name Kermia, Lethargia, and Sanguinarium among such countries.
The first choice is determined by the desire of any average commoner to live in prosperity and luxury.
The second and third - by the fact that a person who missed the first option and failed to achieve material well-being, on the territory of these dumps, would at least be most free from any oppressive mechanisms. A person deprived of both wealth and freedom is a pitiful sight. In other words, my condolences to ninety-five percent of the region's population.

3. Altinia, Bastion, and Aolia, if the last two are considered.
I don't know what life is actually like in Aolia, but it seems to me that most of the locals born there are destined for a path of either banditry, terrorism, or being endlessly tortured, milked dry, miserable human material.
The other two seem completely made-up to me. Such perverted formations probably can only exist in pocket-sized fantasy books for reading on the toilet.

4. None. I don't see how the presence of foreigners can bring any benefit or joy - except perhaps to beat them up during training.

5. None. But I would especially NOT want to see the scoundrels from the west and south, the savages from the east, and least of all anyone from the undesirable countries listed above.

6. Only one emotion - why did we have to wait so long for this?
If possible, I won't go anywhere.
My sword, my trusted ally, unphased by my aspect.