Ple-Sen
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So Silverdawn isn't actually at war with you. Alaria even wrote that your faction is only a threat in the long term, since you have direct enemies right now.
No matter how much he wants to, he can't ignore Revnland. And trying to diplo with Carnea is 90% death. Renavan's goals are simply unattainable as long as Revnland exists.
But without Carnea, they won't be able to counter you. It's like in that brawl with Stef and Chevapchichi.