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So Renovan is unhappy with the current government, and the context hints that he plans to overthrow Marianelia. To please Sithia, but of course he won't say that out loud.
Dunno, I wouldn't say it's all that clear-cut. He seems so cunning to me that he might end up ruining Sithia completely in the end. And overthrowing Masha isn't necessary either. So grandpa came back, and what? He'll just help his granddaughter rule.
You thought the incredible stories from the Sithian and the sycophant were lies too. Then the Sithian's story was confirmed, and the Revnlanders passed a headless body around. Your theories haven't been confirmed so far.
My initial stance is to never believe them. The fact that they told the truth once means nothing. They could tell the truth 24/7 for all I care. What difference does it make if their ultimate goal is to wipe us out (see the servant's conviction)? And the fact that they do all sorts of things in Revnland has been known from the very start. Could Karneya have done what the servant described? Yes, I was 100% sure of that even before the head story. Did it actually happen? I don't know, and I don't trust the servant — it's simple.
Regarding grandpa, my stance is the same as regarding Hatarait. An ambiguous type, but not being a sycophant of a powerful GM character is an auto-loss, no two ways about it.
Небо – мольбы не ждёт Небо – угроз не слышит Небо – ведёт особый счёт Небо – тебя найдёт