Ple-Sen
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And the fact that we're arguing right now doesn't mean that Pless and I hate each other or anything. Even with what I said above, I don't think he's intentionally trying to set me up through metagaming so that I'd be perfectly eliminated for Alaria and not interfere with the victory. At least I hope I'm understanding the situation correctly.
It's just that I'm a scaredy-cat and don't want to throw the game, and he doesn't like that I don't want to trust the probabilities.
Alaria's chances of winning aren't very high. I won't say they're nonexistent, but I'd sooner list Orvald, Lorican, Ferlyuts, or Axel as favorites.