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About 11.5% for the horse. Slightly higher than Ambrose's chance to crit Rezaru. And Perfection had a 45% chance to survive the attack, which is definitely higher than 34%.
And 34% is still higher than 11.5%, so what? Did it work? Should you build your battle plan around that in the future? No, you shouldn't. You shouldn't build it around anything at all.
If I had fought differently, you would have crushed me. If you had tried to bring Ambrose closer and speed him up with Yin + launch an ambush attack with Lester, the odds would have been better too. Or if Lester had ambushed Rezaru.