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60% isn't exactly high odds either. Alaria is currently attacking with roughly the same accuracy, so there's a good chance her action points will go to waste too.
I already wrote, just roll the dice to see who wins and don't bother with calculations for days on end.
Well, actions did play a role too, generally speaking. So don't go there. As for randomness... well, that's what randomness is. Nothing you can do about it.
Some Osh in Izkazan kept missing for who knows how long, then just one-shot the opponent with two hits...🤣
In one of my games, I had a character somewhat similar to Alsira, and the chance to hit her was minuscule. The damage was good. Lots of magic. The only weak point was health. At the start of every battle, she consistently took a critical hit for her entire health pool. And the dice were rolled in real time, so it was pure randomness.
Sky
You'd be better off making pictures for Ambrose than this.