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60% isn't exactly high odds either. Alaria currently attacks with roughly the same accuracy, so there's a good chance her action points will go to waste too.
I already said, just roll the dice to see who wins and don't bother with calculations that take days.
Well, actions did play a role too, so don't go there. As for randomness... well, that's what randomness is. Nothing you can do about it.
Some Osh in Ikazkan kept missing for who knows how long, then just flat-out took out the opponent with two hits...🤣
Ничто не возникает из ничего и ничто не пропадает бесследно. Если где-то чего-то убудет, то в другом месте добавится. (Закон сохранения).