60% isn't exactly high odds either. Alaria is currently attacking with roughly the same accuracy, so there's a good chance her AP will also go to waste.
I already said, just roll the dice to see who wins and don't bother our brains with calculations for several days.
Небо – угроз не слышит
Небо – ведёт особый счёт
Небо – тебя найдёт