Ple-Sen
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The Wyvern is scarier for you, but only if it hits and the burn procs. Its regular damage won't even penetrate your defense.
On the subject of burn: does it ignore the barrier? Or will it strike directly against it?
And one more question. Animals don't have a spirit parameter, but abilities that reduce spirit can target them. What happens in that case? Does the spirit damage go to waste, or does it transfer to the rider? Because Arz has a shield that deals spirit damage. Though you'd need to endure at least 20 attacks before it has any effect.
But overall, at the tournament I'd bet on either Axel or Vargas. I wouldn't be surprised if Stefania takes a prize spot either. The rest have too many random factors at play.