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Trust, but verify!!! I didn't believe 20%, but I checked – and I was convinced. I also don't believe that the unicorn aura gives 20%, I'll have to check that out when I have some free time!
What does probability theory have to do with it...? Like, what is the probability that a coin will land on its edge? Or hang in the air? Do you even understand what that is? It is IMPOSSIBLE to verify this aspect of the game, IMHO! That's exactly why various materials were presented for this purpose and for the different interests of players, many of which AmberSoler collected and compiled into a reference book called PhysMig, and added many observations from the practice of great players, and all of this was done over the course of more than a year, believe me... Even if it turned out that the ability worked 2 times out of 10, it's just a coincidence, unfortunately... It is not possible to verify such a question with a specific example...
Sincerely.
"Единственное, что можно сказать с уверенностью об удаче - она изменит..."