The chances are slim.
>The only way for the main mafia to win would be if they managed to get a block and didn't steal the vote.
But the fact that the main mafia will be in the block is a 100% move, which is the only chance.
>and Inar successfully killed someone from the town.
Well, yes, there's a 50-50 chance of a kill.
If he doesn't kill, then during the day it will be 3-2-1 in votes, in theory, the mafia and the neutral can unite and go into a no-vote situation (3-3) to repeat the day. (They can, right? Although it's still an alliance). If they don't unite, then the town wins.
If he kills a town member, then during the day it will be 2-2-1, and Inar wins.