Ple-Sen
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If they killed Alm and killed Rafaga, then the lack of a kill raises understandable suspicions, but you also need to keep in mind things like:
- Mafia could have killed Rafaga
- Could they have poisoned him? Does a raid on a poisoning attempt by the main Mafia immediately show up, or not?
- Could they have targeted Inar's immunity (although One-Eyed can break through it, so this is if the Mafia killed him with a Courtesan, although such a defensive strategy is possible in principle)
Plus, of course, isolation, in all its variations.