macca
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In HoMM, you can keep investigating until the town loses. And in general, you should play more casually and for fun. As for Tox, you can simply observe his conclusions and votes throughout the day to understand that following such a person might be dangerous for the town. And it's not even about him being a Mafia member, but about his erratic behavior. He just confuses the town, and then writes about some game-related or non-game-related moments and other assumptions that are based on who knows what. Maybe 7 years ago, it was possible to identify some players based on their psychology or activity, but that time has long passed. And there is evidence. If you don't like long chains of reasoning, I actually found a shorter piece of evidence, and again, it points to Nefel. If none of the available evidence is convincing, then the problem lies with the players themselves.
I strongly disagree with the idea that you can't judge based on psychology. The fact that a person jumps from one conclusion to another suggests to me that they are considering many possible scenarios just to help the town win, because the more active the town is during the day, the more likely it is to win. Mafia members, on the other hand, would push for a single option that benefits only them.
save animals, eat the rich