Let me explain. It's about personal psychology. Gumer always plays as if he's on the losing side, and Nefela warned me before the game and role assignment that she wouldn't be actively participating and wouldn't be able to play actively. That single post of hers seemed perfectly consistent with Nefela playing alone, outside the team. I suspected her of being a Mana player, but we correctly eliminated Fragment, so I'm leaning towards Nefi being a Town member.
For now, my ranking is as follows. I won't explain it, and don't even ask.
Reds:
Tox
Gumer
Alex
Makka
Greys:
Master
Nefela
Arandor
Blacks:
Crabby
Heroist
I'm 60% sure that the Mafia trio is among Master, Arandor, Crabby, and Heroist; any of them can be eliminated. I'm 80% sure that the Mafia trio is among the five, adding Nefela to those four. I'm leaving 20% for the possibility that Alex is Mafia, but I still want to believe in him. As far as I remember, he plays Mafia differently, but I don't know how much Alex has improved as a player in the last three years; maybe he's learned how to play Mafia effectively now.