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I also think that everything depends on chance... IMHO, both Necropolis and Tower at the beginning of the game depend on the availability of nearby resources (especially sulfur, dragon stones, and crystals). There have always been doubts about the Tower – whether it will be possible to build a Tower of Magi or not – that is the question. Although the "blue" gremlins shoot, they are essentially not very good as ranged units. Of the units of levels 1-3, only golems are good, perhaps, due to their natural resistance to magic and a fairly large number of hit points. However, they also move slowly, and if there are no ranged units left in the army, it takes too long to move them across the entire battlefield...
Conflux has it a little easier: you can create ranged units (Thunder Elementals) without any particular problems and play in battle, so to speak, "from defense" – especially against Necropolis, where obtaining ranged units is associated with certain problems...
Besides, among these "magical" castles, the mages of Conflux probably have the best starting characteristics (if I'm not mistaken, 0-0-3-3).
Therefore, my hit parade looks like this:
-Conflux
-Necropolis
-Tower