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In over 100 games on small maps, it happened about 3 times that the opponent broke my main castle on day 2, and I had to retreat to a treasure. Of course, I was playing weaker and mostly chose opponents of similar strength. But even in this case, the game didn't end even on week 3.
Now, however, it more often happens that the opponent connects to me with roads and attacks my main castle via off-road.
I agree that even if the opponent breaks the main castle on the second week and takes the main town, the game doesn't end, but in any case, the opponent is left with at most one accessible treasure, and without control, they usually still lose on week 3.