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I consider morale, luck, and magic resistance to be elements of luck.
If you replay a battle several times, the outcome will be different (of course, if the armies are of equal strength), and luck plays a major role.
Morale is important in all parts of the game, luck is less noticeable in the fourth part, and magic resistance is also present in all parts (but in the fourth part, it is more unpredictable).
Regarding saving... I save when I exit the game, and sometimes during campaigns.
Regarding losing a castle, it's frustrating when two people play on the same computer (not as allies). The second player skips their turn, and the map shows their area, but what's happening with the first player is unknown. In such games, the first player needs to be very careful, as the enemy can come unnoticed. (I remember losing a castle this way, but luckily I noticed in time and managed to defend it).
If you're playing against computers, then you're to blame. You should always place scouts and try to explore the map in all directions.