Ple-Sen
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Generally, if I'm not mistaken:
The chance of a winter mishap is 13%.
The chance of a spring mishap is 10%, if nothing bad is done to the mermaid.
The chance of a summer mishap is 6%.
The chance of an autumn mishap is 12% (16%, if considering the magical world as a mishap).
Added 5 minutes later
Regarding good events:
The chance of a winter joy is 32%.
The chance of a spring joy is 10% (19%, if considering the mermaid as a joy).
The chance of a summer joy is 28%.
The chance of an autumn joy is 20% (23%, if considering the fairy tale world as a joy).
The chance of a winter mishap is 13%.
The chance of a spring mishap is 10%, if nothing bad is done to the mermaid.
The chance of a summer mishap is 6%.
The chance of an autumn mishap is 12% (16%, if considering the magical world as a mishap).
Added 5 minutes later
Regarding good events:
The chance of a winter joy is 32%.
The chance of a spring joy is 10% (19%, if considering the mermaid as a joy).
The chance of a summer joy is 28%.
The chance of an autumn joy is 20% (23%, if considering the fairy tale world as a joy).