Ple-Sen
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I would establish my base in the north. This way, the only dangerous neighbor would be Deicia. The Jarls are unlikely to be interested in us. However, on other positions, there is a potential threat in the form of Shinsekai, which may want to seize not only the Nilam territories but also other coastal provinces. Aggression from Jagensdorf is also possible, but not likely at the beginning of the game.