Ley
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It's not 100%. You probably haven't checked other people's saves for morale drops. It doesn't drop according to the same pattern. There is a chance of deviations. I don't know what it depends on.
You're wrong, I have checked ;). Amber, you probably didn't check for "long" enough... There is a chance of deviations, but it repeats after a certain number of times :)
"Единственное, что можно сказать с уверенностью об удаче - она изменит..."