- A reference guide and manual in Russian for Heroes 3.

Any calculation can be done, but you have no idea how to do it in this particular case, am I right?

What should be calculated? Say it in plain language. A 20% probability is pure mathematics, not prediction, and I already said that. At any given moment in time, out of five attempts, one will be successful on average. It might be two in a row, or even three! But then it might not work twenty times in a row... But on average, out of 1000 attempts, 200 will be successful. And they will be distributed relatively evenly over time - but of course, not every fifth one... This is mathematics. And there is no prediction involved.

And if you want to determine whether it will work or not right now, when you are about to attack the enemy, then no one can help you with that. It is impossible. Play roulette on red/black - there is a higher chance of success, but you still won't be able to guess...

What about what I asked in the second part of my question: does the improved unicorn have a higher chance of blinding or not?

In theory (in the manual) - there is no difference. It says so in the reference, read it carefully.